With the advent of effective vaccines for the COVID-19 virus, the end of the pandemic is imminent, but in the short term the virus continues to spread.
A timely new study published on December 29, 2020, by PLOS ONE examines the effectiveness of COVID-19 governance policies in 40 jurisdictions, including states and US states.
Some of the conclusions are that significant social costs must be incurred to reduce the growth of the virus below zero. In most jurisdictions under investigation, policies with a lesser social impact, including the cancellation of public events, restrictions on gatherings to less than 100 people, and recommendations to stay at home, are not in themselves sufficient to control COVID-19. not. Socially intolerable measures such as stay-at-home orders, purposeful or complete workplace and school closures are also required.
The study was written by Anita M. McGahan, University Professor and the George E. Connell Chair in Organizations and Society at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management and Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, Wesley Wu-Yi Koo, ‘ an assistant. professor of strategy at INSEAD, and Phebo Wibbens, an assistant professor of strategy at INSEAD.
The study used a model to generate estimates of the marginal impact of each policy in a jurisdiction after the overall portfolio of policies has been adopted by the jurisdiction, the levels at which the policies are implemented, the severity of compliance within the jurisdiction, the jurisdiction COVID-19 infections, COVID-19 deaths and excess deaths, and the implementation of the portfolio policies in other jurisdictions. Eleven categories of COVID-19 control policies were investigated, including school closures, workplace closures, cancellations of public events, restrictions on gatherings, closures of public transportation, home requirements, restrictions on internal movement, international travel control, public information campaigns, testing and contact tracing .
Reference: “Which COVID policy is the most effective? A Bayesian analysis of COVID-19 by jurisdiction ”by Phebo D. Wibbens, Wesley Wu-Yi Koo and Anita M. McGahan, 29 December 2020, PLOS ONE.
DOI: 10.1371 / joernaal.pone.0244177