Ocean warming, predicted to intensify tropical rain extremes

(Left) Predicted change in ocean surface temperature in 2050-2099 compared to 1950-1999 using an ensemble of climate models. (Right) Predicted change in the amplitude of water fluctuations (standard deviation from year to year) in 2050-2099 compared to 1950-1999. Credit: Kyung-suk Yun

The warming of the ocean was predicted to lead to a doubling of the amplitude of rain fluctuations in the Pacific.

El Niինo-Southern Oscillations (ENSO) are the most naturally occurring natural energy’s on the planet’s ocean temperature և year after year. Irregular swings between the warm and humid El Niյo conditions of the equatorial Pacific Ocean ան Irregular oscillations affect the weather in the world, affecting ecosystems, agriculture և economies. Climate models predict that the difference in El Niño և La Niña-related rainfall will increase over the next 80 years, although the temperature difference between El Niño and La Niña may change very little in response to global warming. New study published Communication Country միջավայր environment reveals the reasons for this amazing fact.

Using the latest climate models, climate change researchers from the IBS Center for Climate Physics at Pusan ​​National University, the Korea Institute for Polar Research, and the University of Monno University in Hawaii և Canada աշխատել have worked together to identify the mechanisms involved. intensification in response to global warming. ” says lead author Dr. Kyung-suk Yoon of the IBS Center for Climate Physics (pictured right). “It is interesting that the annual changes in the ocean temperature do not show such a clear signal. “Therefore, our study focuses on the mechanisms that link future ocean warming to extreme Pacific tropical rainfall.”

The research team found that the key to understanding this potential climatic feature lies in the relationship between the temperature of the tropical ocean surface and the rain. Two important aspects must be taken into account. 1) ocean surface temperature threshold for the formation of rain; և 2) rain response to the change in ocean surface temperature, which is called rain sensitivity. “Heavy rains in the tropics are usually associated with thunderstorms, deep clouds like ankles. They form only when the surface of the ocean is warmer than about 27.5 degrees Celsius or 81 degrees Fahrenheit in our current climate, ”says co-author Professor Malte Stucker of the University of Hawaii in Mauna.

This ocean surface temperature threshold for intense tropical rainwater moves to a higher value in a warmer world, does not contribute to increased rainfall variability. “However, warmer climates can hold more moisture, which means that when it rains, the rains will be stronger. Moreover, the intensified warming of the equatorial oceans leads to the movement of the atmosphere on the equator. “Air rising from overseas absorbs moist air, which can further increase precipitation if other meteorological conditions are met.” says co-author Professor June Un-Yi Lin of the IBS Center for Climate Physics.

This increase in rainfall sensitivity is the main reason why there will be more extreme rain swings in a warmer world.

Reference. February 22, 2021 Communication Country միջավայր environment,
DOI: 10.1038 / s43247-021-00108-8:

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